WEEK OF DEC 28, 2024 – JAN 3, 2025

A frontier-adjacent open-weight model for the price of a house meets $80B of capex

DeepSeek put a 671B flagship on Hugging Face for roughly $5.6M of training compute, and within days Microsoft answered with the largest datacenter number anyone had put on the record.

The cost floor of frontier-adjacent AI fell into public view this week. DeepSeek-V3 shipped with downloadable weights and a training-run figure in the single-digit millions of dollars.

Microsoft pledged roughly $80B of AI datacenter spending for fiscal 2025, more than half of it in the US. Meanwhile the US outbound-investment screening regime for Chinese chips, quantum and AI took legal effect, and the Kremlin instructed Russia's government to build AI cooperation with China.

FRI · Jan 3, 2025computedata centerscapexindustry

Microsoft commits ~$80B to AI datacenters in fiscal 2025

Brad Smith's Microsoft On the Issues post states the company is on track to invest approximately $80 billion in AI-enabled datacenters in fiscal 2025, with more than half of that total in the United States, framed as a pitch for the incoming administration to back American AI infrastructure, skilling and exports to allies.

Reuters and CNN both picked up the figure as a headline number for the sector's capex race. It landed the day after a Chinese lab published a frontier-adjacent open-weight model trained for a figure in the single-digit millions — the contrast that defined the week.

Microsoft commits ~$80B to AI datacenters in fiscal 2025
Microsoft

WHY IT MATTERS

The clearest public split in AI economics: a hyperscaler's infrastructure number set against an open-weight release that resets what a competitive model costs to train and to self-host.

THU · Jan 2, 2025litigationprivacyvoice assistantsapple

Apple agrees to pay $95M to settle Siri recording claims

Apple agreed to pay $95 million in cash to settle a proposed class action alleging its Siri assistant violated users' privacy by recording private conversations after accidental activations and sharing them with third parties.

The preliminary settlement was filed in Oakland federal court and needs approval from US District Judge Jeffrey White. The class period runs from 17 September 2014 to 31 December 2024, and members may receive up to $20 per Siri-enabled device, with the class estimated in the tens of millions. Apple denied wrongdoing. A parallel suit over Google's Voice Assistant, brought by the same plaintiffs' firms, is pending in the same district.

Apple agrees to pay $95M to settle Siri recording claims
www.federalregister.gov

WHY IT MATTERS

Voice-assistant data collection is the consumer-side version of the data-provenance fight the whole industry is in — and the settlement lands on the last day of the class period it covers.

THU · Jan 2, 2025regulationexport controlsinvestmentchina

US outbound-investment screening on Chinese AI, chips and quantum takes legal effect

The Treasury rule implementing Executive Order 14105 — 31 CFR Part 850, published at 89 FR 90398 — became effective on 2 January 2025. It bars or requires notification for certain US-person investments in Chinese, Hong Kong and Macau companies working on semiconductors and microelectronics, quantum information technologies, and artificial intelligence, the three sectors the order designated as national-security technologies.

Law-firm analyses of the regime circulated that week as the compliance date hit.

WHY IT MATTERS

For anyone building or funding AI with a China nexus, this is the operative compliance date: it turns export-control logic inward onto capital flows, and it sits in direct tension with the same week's open-weight release out of Hangzhou.

WED · Jan 1, 2025geopoliticschinarussiacompute

Putin orders Russian government and Sberbank to build AI cooperation with China

President Vladimir Putin ordered Russia's government and its largest bank, Sberbank, to build cooperation with China in artificial intelligence.

The instructions were published on the Kremlin website as sanctions pressure continues to limit Russian access to Western AI hardware and models.

WHY IT MATTERS

A state-directed alternative bloc is forming around compute and models, right as US investment restrictions on Chinese AI took effect the next day — a signal about where open-weight distributions travel when export controls bite.

MON · Dec 30, 2024computem&aantitrustgpu schedulingopen source

Nvidia closes its $700M Run:ai acquisition and plans to open-source the software

Nvidia completed its acquisition of Israeli AI infrastructure startup Run:ai after the European Commission granted unconditional approval earlier in December. The Commission had initially said the deal would require EU clearance and warned it could threaten competition in GPU-related markets.

Run:ai said it plans to make its GPU-virtualization and scheduling software open source so it can extend beyond Nvidia GPUs to the wider AI ecosystem. Nvidia holds roughly 80% of the AI GPU market.

WHY IT MATTERS

Two developer-relevant facts in one: Nvidia is buying the layer that schedules GPU capacity for AI workloads — what your training jobs queue on — and it intends to open-source it, which is a distribution move for the CUDA moat at the same moment regulators are watching the deal.

SAT · Dec 28, 2024open weightsMoEmodel releaseinference costchina

DeepSeek-V3: a 671B open-weight MoE reaches closed-frontier quality for a single-digit-million training run

DeepSeek released DeepSeek-V3 with downloadable weights, and the analysis ran through the New Year week. The specification: 671B total parameters with 37B activated per token, a 128K context window, pre-trained on 14.8 trillion tokens using multi-head latent attention, DeepSeekMoE and an auxiliary-loss-free load-balancing strategy.

The report's own framing is that it outperforms other open-source models and achieves performance comparable to leading closed-source models, and that the final training run needed only 2.788M H800 GPU-hours — the number behind the widely cited ~$5.6M compute estimate. Code is MIT-licensed; the weights ship under DeepSeek's own model license.

WHY IT MATTERS

This is the open-weight story of the quarter and the direct counterweight to the same week's $80B capex pledge and new China investment bans: frontier-adjacent capability that anyone can download and self-host, at an API price floor the closed labs have to answer, with 37B active parameters setting the realistic self-hosting bar.